Much more of the UK’s future electricity mix will come from renewable, battery storage and interconnectors, the Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS) projects.
The latest modeling also indicates a significant reduction in projected gas fired capacity compared to previous expectations.
The new projections update assumptions on fuel prices, carbon emissions and key generation technologies with some interesting but significant changes in projected outcomes:
- Renewable capacity to 36GW by 2030 (compared to 21GW in the 2015 projection), which Carbon Brief report as including around 10GW of small scale, subsidy free solar PV.
- Battery storage to 4GW by 2035.
- Interconnector capacity at 15GW by 2024 (compared to 9GW in the 2015 projection).
- Gas capacity put at only 7GW by 2029 (compared to 15GW in the 2015 projection).
Energy expert insight
“The significant adjustments made to the forward electricity generation projections for the UK, published by BEIS, reflect the rapidly changing economics of large scale renewable generation.
It looks like large scale base-load generation is expected to be largely provided through new nuclear capacity, with less focus on large scale gas fired generations. Of course these are only projections, the reality could easily be different, particularly given the challenges the new nuclear projects are facing.” Alastair Fells MEI, Incorporated Eng, PG Dip Fuel Tech, BSc Hons