The London School of Economics has released a report “Energy and the economy: The 2030 outlook for UK businesses,” (commissioned by RWE NPower) looking at future energy provision scenarios for the UK.
Can we hit the target?
In the “Hitting the Target” scenario the “high degree of political cohesion” encourages record levels of investment. Carbon based emissions are reduced to 18% of 1990 levels with investments of £330 billion (excluding network upgrades) in power plant, with power delivery from 10GW of abated gas fired generation, 40.5GW of unabated fossil fuel fired capacity and 16.5GW of nuclear capacity; totalling 67GW of capacity. There would also be an additional 50GW of renewables capacity. The scenario also envisages grid connected storage, demand side management and on site stand-by generation.
The alternative scenarios, “Gas is the key” and “Austerity Reigns” envisage either:
- a shift towards new gas fired capacity, replacing all fossil fuel fired plant. This would be encouraged by competitive gas prices and more moderate environmental targets, coupled with limited investment in new nuclear capacity and continuing upgrades of current plant (capital investment put at £180 billion); or
- an absolute focus on economic growth resulting in the lowest cost option being pursued and unabated thermal plant providing most of the capacity.
A copy of the report can be downloaded here.
As you can see, these scenarios differ starkly to the Energy Bill’s £7.6 billion per year low carbon investment increases by 2020/21.
For more information, help or advice please contact Andrew Davison on 0191 211 7950 or email [email protected].